Musings on Mark Warners' Energy Ideology

Undoubtedly, one of Governor Warner's strength's is that he understands the implicit nature of technological progress and the improvements it can bring to the lives of everyday American citizens. He sums up all that I like about his candidacy and energy platform here in his DNC keynote:

You know, America has never been afraid of the future, and we shouldn't start now. If we choose the right path, every one of these challenges is also an opportunity. Look at energy. If we actually got ourselves off foreign oil, we can make our country safer. We'll start to solve global warming. And with the right policies, within 24 months, we'll be building 100 mile-per-gallon plug-in hybrid vehicles right here - with American technology and with American workers.

Scott Kleeb puts Nebraska First.

And Nebraska is noticing...

In case you were distracted by Mark Warner's electrifying speech last night, there were a number of hot congressional primaries in Alaska and Florida yesterday. Here's a quick round-up of last night's action:

• AK-Sen (D): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich won the Democratic Senate nomination with an impressive 91% of the vote, with 98% of precincts reporting.
• AK-Sen (R): Ted Stevens survived his primary against banker Dave Cuddy and Floridian beardo Vic Vickers (and several other also-rans), but only with 63.5% of the vote.
• AK-AL (D): Ethan Berkowitz won the Democratic nomination for the state's at-large House seat by a 59-41 margin over '06 candidate Diane Benson. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Don Wright received 5600 votes and will also appear on the November ballot.
• AK-AL (R): With 98% of precincts reporting and many absentee ballots still outstanding, Don Young has taken a 145-vote lead over Sean Parnell. This race is heading into "contentious recount territory" real fast.
• FL-08 (D & R): Democrat Alan Grayson upset '06 nominee Charlie Stuart by a 48-28 margin for the right to take on Ric Keller in November. Keller, meanwhile, barely survived his primary challenge from right-wing radio personality Todd Long, with only 53% of the vote to Long's 47%.
• FL-09 (D): In a bit of an upset for the DCCC, attorney Bill Mitchell beat out wealthy former Plant City Mayor John Dicks by a 38-33 margin for the nomination against frosh GOP Rep. Gus Bilirakis.
• FL-10 (D): Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth dispatched '06 nominee and Ron Paul acolyte Samm Simpson by a 47-29 margin for the chance to take on longtime GOP Rep. Bill Young. Max Linn, a self-funding candidate who ran for Governor in 2006 on the Reform ticket, only earned 24% of the vote.
• FL-15 (D & R): Physician Stephen Blythe crushed pilot Paul Rancatore by a 65-35 margin for the Democratic nomination for this open seat. Republicans nominated state Sen. Bill Posey with 77% of the vote, and he seems poised to run away with this race come November.
• FL-16 (R): Pittsburgh Steelers heir Ed Tom Rooney won a tight three-way race by a 37-35-28 margin for the GOP nod to face off with Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney.
• FL-24 (D): Former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas crushed '06 nominee Clint Curtis by a 72-28 margin. Kosmas will face ethically-challenged GOP Rep. Tom Feeney in November.

House Races

MN-03: Democrat Ashwin Madia, running for the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad, is up with his first ad. I like the production values:

PA-10: Via SSP, SurveyUSA polls the race (8/23-25, likely voters, MoE: ±4.0%):

Those are some fairly hairy numbers for Carney, who is running for his first re-election bid -- any incumbent below the 50% bubble has to be concerned. His favorability numbers are decent (40% favorable, 23% unfavorable, and 30% neutral), but clearly show that he could stand to boost his profile some more at home.

In better news, the poll continues to throw some cold water onto the NRCC's "drilling=electoral profit!!" hopes. When asked if they would vote for a candidate who favors increased offshore drilling or one who favors promoting alternative sources of energy as a way to combat the energy crisis, voters in Pennsylvania's 10th choose the candidate touting alternative energy over the driller by a 54-36 margin. This confirms similar results we've seen in the past couple of days from CO-04 and KS-02. If the GOP's drilling message can't sell in conservative red districts like these, where can it be effective?

CT-04: Because nothing spells "confidence" like crashing your opponent's press conference to make your own whiny defense, GOP Rep. Chrissy Shays does exactly that, and embarrasses himself in the process.

NY-26: Everyone's favorite nutjob, crazy Jack Davis ("D"), says that immigrants from Mexico will start a new Civil War:

Congressional candidate Jack Davis, in a speech earlier this year, warned that increasing immigration from Mexico could lead to a new civil war between northern states and Mexican-influenced Southern states that may want to secede from the United States.

"In the latter part of this century or the next, Mexicans will be a majority in many of the states and could therefore take control of the state government using the democratic process," Davis said in the speech. "They could then secede from the United States, and then we might have another civil war." [...]

"They have an allegiance to Mexico, where they were taught the U. S. fought an unjust war with Mexico and took this territory," Davis said. "They believe the territory of these states belongs to Mexico."

If this lunatic beats Jon Powers in the Democratic primary here, I think a little piece of me will die inside. (Via SSP)

Senate Races

RNCC: You know it's a rough year for Republicans when even Mike Johanns of Nebraska won't show up to their convention. In fact, the only GOP Senators up for re-election who are speaking in St. Paul are Mitch McConnell and home-state host Norm Coleman, who is slated to address the convention not once, but twice!

DNCC: Meanwhile, in Denver, Jeff Merkley, Jeanne Shaheen, Tom Allen and Tom Udall are all addressing the convention today. Don't miss it!

NC-Sen: Shorter Liddy Dole: "The DSCC sunk my battleship!"

MS-Sen-B: Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood says that the Republican Secretary of State's flirtation with pushing Mississippi's special Senate election to the bottom of the ballot flies in the face of the law. Of course, fair elections and the rule of law have not exactly been the GOP's strong suit as of late.

Things have changed around a little bit in my Senate rankings. But instead of an analysis of which seats are more likely or less likely to switch from red to blue, it has simply become now just a matter of which seats are more likely to flip.

In the Alaska Senate primaries, Democrat Mark Begich won easily against a no-name field, while the indicted Hulkster Ted Stevens easily held off his six challengers with 63% of the vote. While the rest of the field lagged, it's telling that 37 percent of Republicans wanted someone else.

In the House, Ethan Berkowitz also won his primary easily with 53 percent of the vote, the rest split with two other candidates. But the Republican contest has provided a great deal of drama:

Yup. With about 85,000 votes cast, there are only 145 votes separating the two candidates. Remember, we want the corrupt incumbent -- Don "Bridge to Nowhere" Young to survive his primary challenge. He would be a far easier target in the general election than the Club for Growth-funded Parnell.

Ivan Moore Research for the Anchorage Press and KTUU. 8/9-12. Likely voters. MoE ~4.4%

Can Parnell make up the 145 votes with just 9 precincts left to count? Beats me. The remaining districts are all rural interior precincts, where Young has huge support (those people get bridges that go nowhere!). But those precincts are also sparsely populated (which is why their bridges go nowhere). So the numbers may not change much when they are counted, other than to slightly increase Young's lead. The bigger factor is absentee ballots:

There are also the 16,000 absentee ballots the division of elections mailed out. It has received back 7,600 of them and Gail Fenumiai, director of the state division of elections, said she didn't know how many of those have been counted. As long as the absentee ballots were postmarked Tuesday, the division will continue to count them for the next 10 days. Questioned ballots will be counted on Sept. 5.

If it remains this close, there will be a recount, and maybe nasty court battles! A contested Young victory with a nasty court battle would certainly make Democrats smile.

Note of course, that Young is just at 45 percent of the vote, less than a majority of Republicans. LeDoux ended up playing spoiler, just like we hoped. It's tough to oust an incumbent with two or more challengers. And I'm sure we had plenty of Democratic-leaning "Undeclared" voters also vote in the GOP primary to cause mischief, like this one in last night's election thread:

I'm registered "Undeclared"

and voted on the Republican ballot today for just that reason. Go Don, go! All the way to prison...

Such mischief may end up proving decisive.

Today's a big day in Alaska and Florida -- it's primary night! Crisitunity has a roundup of all the races worth watching tonight, but the big prize is the nomination for Alaska's at-large House seat, where crumb-bum incumbent Don Young is trying to fend off a stiff primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. If the scandal-tainted Young can hold on, Democrats stand a good chance of winning this seat in November; but if Parnell wins, this race will be tougher but still potentially doable. The latest polls have pegged this primary as a true tossup, so tonight's outcome is anyone's guess.

And while few expect Ted Stevens to lose his Senate primary against Floridian beardo Vic Vickers and former state Rep. Dave Cuddy, the results will be worth watching to see just how damaged Stevens really is among the GOP's base in Alaska.

While everyone's eyes will be on Denver tonight, we'll be liveblogging these races over at Swing State Project, so be sure to check with us later for results.

And now on to business.

Senate Races

NC-Sen: Boom goes the DSCC dynamite. Check out Public Policy Polling's latest and greatest (8/20-23, likely voters, 7/23-27 in parens, MoE: ±3.3%):

Dole has taken a nosedive in the past month, in no small part thanks to the DSCC's moneybomb tossed in her direction. According to the poll, 69% of voters have seen the DSCC's recent ads targeting Dole's effectiveness -- a pretty good number for the dog days of summer -- and it's clear that the committee's expenditures have helped move the needle here. Recent polls from Civitas and Insider Advantage have also shown this race trending heavily into "tossup" territory.

TX-Sen: The numbers are less hot in Texas, unfortunately. From Rasmussen (8/21, likely voters including leaners, 7/30 in parens):

Cornyn's performance in the polls during this campaign has been nothing stellar, but winning a statewide race in Texas against an incumbent requires, well, Texas-sized expenditures. Noriega will need to put together some serious cash seriously fast in order to have the resources he needs to boost his profile.

NE-Sen: Scott Kleeb sits down with the Hotline's Quinn McCord for a candid interview on his campaign strategy in Nebraska. Check it out.

OR-Sen: Gordon Smith is touting his faux maverick credentials in his new ad:

That's all well and good, but where was Gordon Smith before the 2006 elections, when he realized that standing shoulder-to-shoulder with George Bush isn't a winning re-election strategy? As the Merkley campaign points out in the diaries, he was too busy feeding quotes like this one to the press:

"An American tank is filled with cheering Iraqis who are for the first time tasting freedom. And I for one am thankful that we have a military as capable as this, and a commander in chief that had the courage not to listen to Hollywood, or the NY Times, or the French. Some have predicted that this action would create a hundred Osama Bin Ladens. I think today on the streets of Baghdad there are tens of thousands of freedom fighters, and I celebrate that."

Funny that these so-called "mavericks" are never there when you really need them.

House Races

CO-04: It's meltdown time for the GOP in Colorado. SurveyUSA has some shocking numbers from the 4th District (8/22-24, likely voters, MoE: ±4.0%):

Those numbers are very much in line with an internal poll from the Markey campaign showing Musgrave trailing by 43-36. Despite all the hoopla surrounding Musgrave's efforts to strike a more "moderate" (i.e. not so vocally homophobic) tone on the stump, it looks like voters have simply had enough. Musgrave's favorables are in the dumps, with a full 51% viewing her unfavorably, compared to only 31% who have a favorable opinion of her.

Colorado's 4th, which delivered a 58-41 drubbing to John Kerry four years ago, appears to be turning blue at a dramatic pace. Despite its R+8.5 PVI, McCain only leads Obama by a 48-46 margin in the district. That is one damn frightening number for the GOP if they hope to hold on to Colorado this November.

Also, as I noted elsewhere, one of the most interesting nuggets from this poll is its questions related to the energy crisis. When asked if they would vote for a candidate who favors increased offshore drilling or one who promotes alternative sources of energy, the pro-drilling candidate loses by a 58-34 margin. If the GOP's pro-drilling bluster is failing to turn on voters in CO-04 and KS-02 (where similar numbers were reported yesterday), where will it be successful?

MI-07, MI-09: Via SSP, an awesome pair of EPIC-MRA poll for Democrats. First, the 7th CD (8/20-22, likely voters, 2/27-3/2 in parens):

I guess playing the witch card wasn't too successful for poor ol' Timmeh. Indeed, with a whopping 78% of voters in his district feeling the nation is headed seriously in the wrong direction, and a dismal 32% positive and 43% negative job approval rating, Walberg will be hard-pressed to be anything more than a one-term wonder this November.

And now for the fightin' 9th (8/21-23, likely voters):

These numbers very closely resemble a DCCC poll from last November that showed crumb-bum Joe Knollenberg leading Gary Peters by 42-35, despite the wild card of having Jack Kevorkian (yes, that Jack Kevorkian) on the ballot. For the first time, Knollenberg will have to fight against the presidential tide: Obama holds a 43-39 lead over McCain in this tossup district. That's great news for Gary Peters.

FL-13: Another week, another lawsuit filed against crumb-bum GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan.

DNCC: Keep your eyes peeled in Denver tonight. Democratic House candidates Raul Martinez (FL-21), Joe Garcia (FL-25), and Christine Jennings (FL-13) are set to appear on stage with DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen tonight.

This afternoon, thanks to an old college friend, I got an invitation to meet and speak with Soon-To-Be Senator Tom Udall (D-NM) at a local organic farm, to talk about food and agriculture issues. Now, I'm interested in food and everything, but it's not exactly my area of expertise.  So, not wanting to get caught flatfooted, I thought I had better get caught up on these issues quick. Who would you turn to for help on food issues? Me too! OrangeClouds115, so charmingly introduced to us just yesterday, was kind enough to take several long hours after a long day at work to brief me on all the hot food and agriculture issues of the day, and to email back and forth all weekend, so that I could show up today, armed with a printout of of the Netroots Nation platform & a head full of our shared vision of what sustainable agriculture could do to build our communities and make our children healthier.  I'm pleased to say that Udall has that same clear vision in his head.

(Give a big Kossack shout-out and welcome to James from the Swing State Project, who will be filling in doing House and Senate round-ups while brownsox is reporting from the Democratic Convention. - SusanG)

Hi Kossacks! In case we haven't met, I'm James L. from the Swing State Project, and I'll be subbing in for brownsox, who is at the convention in Denver this week. If you're not familiar with SSP, we're a blog dedicated entirely to news and analysis of downballot races.

Let's do this thing.

NRSC: In the most delicious piece of news in recent days, NRSC Chair John Ensign released a statement roasting his GOP Senate colleagues for failing to financially support his committee's senatorial campaign efforts. After previously vowing to match Chuck Schumer's spending "dollar for dollar", Ensign is being forced to scale back the committee's efforts, including cancelling a $6 million ad buy in support of Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, and scaling back planned ad buys in Colorado, Oregon and New Hampshire. Without the NRSC's help, Senate Republicans could be in for a world of hurt this November. (H/T: Senate Guru)

CO-Sen: Another excellent pair of polls for Democrat Mark Udall. First, from Suffolk University (8/21-24, likely voters, MoE: ±4.6%):

And from Mason-Dixon (8/13-15, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%)

And what's the response of Schaffer campaign manager Dick Wadhams?

"That flies in the face of just about every other number I've seen in this race, and I think Mason-Dixon had a bad night," said Schaffer campaign spokesman Dick Wadhams. "This poll is so far off the mark, I can't even respond to it."

I'm not sure what polls Wadhams is looking at, but taking a look at Pollster.com, Udall has never trailed Schaffer so far this summer, and has most often been leading by high single digits. If Wadhams and company want to pretend that everything is hunky dory in the Schaffer campaign, then that's fine by me!

VA-Sen: Another poll, another commanding lead for Mark Warner. Public Policy Polling (8/20-22, likely voters, 7/17-20 in parens, MoE: ±3.0%):

Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.

OR-Sen: After taking some time to replenish his war chest after the primary, Democrat Jeff Merkley is back on the airwaves:

Doesn't Oregon look pretty?

DE-Sen: It's official - Joe Biden will continue his Senate re-election campaign. Assuming the Obama-Biden ticket is victorious, Biden will resign from the Senate after being sworn-in for another term, allowing outgoing Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to name his replacement. Possibilities to replace him include state Attorney General Beau Biden (Joe's son), and the loser of Delware's gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Markell. The younger Biden's senatorial aspirations (assuming he has any) could be complicated by his deployment to Iraq in October.

House Races

KS-02: Via SSP, another good poll for Nancy Boyda in her race against Republican Lynn Jenkins. SurveyUSA (8/19-21, likely voters, MoE: ±4%):

Boyda is on the magic 50% mark. This will still be a tough race, as McCain is beating Obama by a 51-38 margin in the district according to the same poll. However, it should be noted that even that spread is not nearly as bad as the 59-39 drubbing that Bush delivered to John Kerry here four years ago.

As I noted elsewhere, perhaps the most interesting nuggets of information from this poll are its questions related to the energy crisis. Given the GOP's newly-discovered pro-drilling bluster, you would think that increased domestric drilling would be a big hit in this conservative, R+7 district. Not so. When asked if they would vote for a candidate who favors increased offshore drilling, or one that promotes increased development of alternate sources of energy, the pro-offshore drilling candidate loses by a 56-34 margin.

AL-05: A new poll by the Capital Survey Research Center shows Democrat Parker Griffith edging Republican Wayne Parker in the open seat race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer (8/19-21, likely voters, 4/1 in parens, MoE: ±4.4%):

Wayne Parker's surge is not really surprising. He began the campaign as a virtual unknown, with the memories of his two unsuccessful bids against Cramer in '94 and '96 being extremely distant, but his high-profile primary battle has likely caused his name ID to surge. Still, with more money in the bank, a superior resume, and an early lead in the polls, this is Griffith's race to lose. (Via SSP)

MI-09: Democrat Gary Peters, running against crumb-bum GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg, is up with a new ad:

Independent Expenditures: Over at Swing State Project, we've started an House Independent Expenditure Tracker, which you can find here. We'll be keeping this page updated daily with district-level updates on expenditures by the DCCC, NRCC, and friends and foes like the Defenders of Wildlife and the Club For Growth.

I know I'm fighting against the Denver tide here, but the office in Omaha was humming today and we here at Team Kleeb remain fired up about sharing the latest news from Nebraska with you.

Scott Kleeb and Mike Johanns debated at the Nebraska State Fair last Saturday. Secretary Johanns chose to use his closing statement as additional rebuttal time. This is a short clip you should not miss from that moment:

There's more...

Before I show you Republican Gordon Smith's new ad, let's just get one thing straight. Gordon Smith voted for the Iraq War. Gordon Smith voted at least five times in support of the Iraq War just last year. No matter how many ads Smith airs trying to fool Oregonians into thinking he's some sort of anti-war hero, his record speaks for itself.

Full disclosure, I am the netroots director for OR-Sen candidate Jeff Merkley

In keeping with the finest traditions of the Bush Justice department, the feds have been stalking former Mississippi Governor Ronnie Musgrove for alleged connections to a scandal involving the Mississippi Beef Plant.

As Tim Kalich reported in the Greenwood Commonwealth, this was quite likely politically motivated (shades of Don Siegelman):

This past week’s developments in the four-year-old investigation into the failed Mississippi Beef Processors plant seem timed to help derail Democrat Ronnie Musgrove’s bid to snatch one of the state’s two U.S. Senate seats from Republican hands.

Three Georgia businessmen, one by one over the course of four days, entered guilty pleas to federal charges arising out of the Yalobusha County beef plant’s quick and costly demise.

The three, all executives with The Facility Group of Smyrna, Ga., were largely left off the hook on the more serious charges that they had swindled the state out of at least $2 million and had left the plant’s vendors and contractors holding the bag.

Instead, they were allowed in a plea bargain to confess to trying to buy influence with Musgrove by steering $25,000 to the then-governor’s unsuccessful re-election campaign in 2003.

In other words, the Justice Department tailored the charges against Facility, from defrauding the state of Mississippi out of millions of dollars, to making illegal contributions to Musgrove's campaign.

I can't imagine why they would accept the lesser charge, unless to derail Musgrove's Senate campaign. Of course, the Bush Justice Department has a proud history of doing exactly that.

Unfortunately for the Republicans, the case against Facility Group has now been ordered dismissed by a federal judge:

In U.S. District Court records filed Thursday, the government asks and gets the court OK to dismiss federal charges against Facility Holding Corp., doing business as The Facility Group, Facility Management Group Inc., Facility Construction Management Inc. and Facility Design Group Inc. of Smyrna, Ga.

That dismissal was part of an earlier agreement with defendant and company executive Robert L. Moultrie, who pleaded guilty to making an illegal gratuity to the 2003 re-election campaign of then-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove.

As part of the agreement, TFG has paid $252,000 to the State of Mississippi, which the motion for dismissal describes as representing "disputed claims" in TFG's contract with the state.

Musgrove, now a U.S. Senate candidate, has not been indicted and insists he has done nothing wrong.

This should theoretically put an end to the unfounded allegations of wrongdoing on Musgrove's part. The feds made their bed when they made the case about Musgrove, rather than the law.

Now they have to sleep in it.

On the web:

Ronnie Musgrove for U.S. Senate

In a nation that scored a miserable D- on choice, Oregon stood out with a solid A rating. 

How did Oregon do so well? Let's check with NARAL.

Cross-posted from Sandstorm.

Everyone here already knew that McCain had way too many houses and that he had no idea what everyday people were suffering through in this economy.  Now the entire country knows too.

Now it's time to add to that "out of touch" narrative!

Ask him how many days he has shown up to vote in the Senate in 2008.

Where I work - at Greenpeace International- we were watching the Obama choice of running mate closely, it's important. When we heard it was Biden I started getting some very excited messages from our nuclear campaigners. This is a man who understands just what's wrong with nuclear power and the risks involved. He's also the only person to ever take a nuclear weapon into the senate to make a point. Literally.

Our blogging here, more below the fold.

I heard this on CNN's Late Edition today:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: You talk about how much you're worried about being able to pay the bills. Well, ladies and gentlemen, that's not a worry John McCain has to worry about.

It's a pretty hard experience. He'll have to figure out which of the seven kitchen tables to sit at.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: All right. A clever line referring to how many homes the McCains own. But what do you think?

SPECTER: Well, I think that when the voter goes into that polling booth, he's going to be a lot more concerned about what Russia's doing in Jordan -- Georgia on their invasion or what's happening with Iran and their developing a nuclear bomb.

More below the fold...

We've seen some great successes in 2006 and the beginnings of similar successes in 2008 aided by Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy.  We need to take things to the next level and build the party stronger and wider...

more discussion after the jump, feedback and ideas greatly appreciated.

(some of this recycled from a comment in a different thread)

Many people believe that Jeff Merkley, Senate candidate from Oregon, is one of the most progressive candidates on the ballot anywhere this year.  He opposed the invasion of Iraq, supports the Reponsible Plan to End the War in Iraq, supports unions and workers, supports fair trade, is very green, and opposed FISA.  Jeff on the Issues

Down the line on issue after issue, he takes a strong progressive stand.  And when he wins, he will replace a Republican senator, Gordon Smith.  We get more and BETTER Democrats when Merkley wins.

So we've decided to do a weekly roundup on Sunday evenings regarding news of the Merkley campaign.  I'll do the first one, and each Sunday there will be a different author.

Come around after the fold, join our community, and hear the news.

With the Democratic convention opening tomorrow, and just over two months left until Election Day, it seems to be a good time to take stock of the current Senate races around the country, and provide a baseline for what to expect as the general-election campaigns begin in earnest.

If the election were held today, Democrats would win five Republican-held seats, in Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, New Hampshire and Colorado. They would also hold the only two Democratic-held seats considered even slightly vulnerable, in Louisiana and New Jersey. This would give the Democratic Party a total of  56 Senate seats controlled, including Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman.

Following is a breakdown of each competitive race at the moment, ranked according to Democratic chances in the state, and rated on the conventional scale of "Safe Democratic" to "Safe Republican".

(Follow below the fold)